TD Props

TD Value Picks

This page is about market value, not TD predictions. We compare our model's TD probability against current sportsbook odds to find where the price is right -- a player can be a top ranked pick and still show Overpriced if the market has them too short.

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Tier Grades On Every Player

Strong Value, Fair Value, Weak Value, and Overpriced -- graded by comparing our model against the market, not just who's ranked highest.

Live Sportsbook Comparison

See market odds across every major book so you know exactly where the best price is before you bet.

Model vs Market Edge

Find where the market is mispricing a player relative to our touchdown probability model, updated weekly.

#	Player	Sportsbook	Mkt Odds	Model Odds	Tier
1	JG RBJahmyr Gibbs DET vs MIN	DraftKings	y	x	Overpriced
2	JW RBJavonte Williams DAL vs ARI	DraftKings	y	x	Overpriced
4	CH RBChuba Hubbard CAR vs GB	BetMGM	y	x	Overpriced
5	OG RBOllie Gordon II MIA vs NE	DraftKings	y	x	Fair Value
6	DS RBD'Andre Swift CHI vs SEA	DraftKings	y	x	Overpriced

Showing 5 of 105 value picks for Week 8 — sign in for the full board, live book comparison, and exact model odds. Swipe to see more →