TD Props

TD Value Picks

This page is about market value, not TD predictions. We compare our model's TD probability against current sportsbook odds to find where the price is right -- a player can be a top ranked pick and still show Overpriced if the market has them too short.

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Tier Grades On Every Player

Strong Value, Fair Value, Weak Value, and Overpriced -- graded by comparing our model against the market, not just who's ranked highest.

Live Sportsbook Comparison

See market odds across every major book so you know exactly where the best price is before you bet.

Model vs Market Edge

Find where the market is mispricing a player relative to our touchdown probability model, updated weekly.

#	Player	Sportsbook	Mkt Odds	Model Odds	Tier
1	DA RBDe'Von Achane MIA vs LV	DraftKings	y	x	Weak Value
2	JC RBJames Cook BUF vs HOU	FanDuel	y	x	Weak Value
3	KI RBKenneth Walker III KC vs DEN	BetMGM	y	x	Overpriced
4	SB RBSaquon Barkley PHI vs WAS	DraftKings	y	x	Overpriced
5	CB RBChase Brown CIN vs TB	FanDuel	y	x	Overpriced

Showing 5 of 433 value picks for Week 1 — sign in for the full board, live book comparison, and exact model odds. Swipe to see more →